If rates keep rising, loans get dearer and savings pay more
The Fed and the ECB decide on 28 and 29 October after both raised rates in September; German inflation and labour-market data follow on Friday.
The Fed and the ECB raised rates in September because of high inflation and decide again on 28 and 29 October. On Friday come GDP, inflation and labour-market data for Germany; on Saturday the no-strike obligation in the metal and electrical industry expires.
Dates
| Mon 26 Oct | ifo business climate, October First sentiment reading after September's rise in inflation; the index last rose to 89.9 points. |
| Wed 28 Oct | BASF reports third-quarter results The chemicals group shows how strongly higher energy prices feed through to costs and margins in energy-intensive industry. |
| Wed 28 Oct | US Federal Reserve rate decision The Fed raised its target range to 3.75 to 4.00 per cent in September; the decision shapes the dollar, financing costs and export prospects. |
| Wed 28 Oct | Microsoft reports first quarter of fiscal 2027 Data-centre spending and revenue from AI services show whether the pace of AI investment is holding. |
| Thu 29 Oct | ECB rate decision After raising the deposit rate to 2.50 per cent in September, the ECB decides whether to tighten further with inflation at 3.8 per cent; this sets lending and deposit rates across the euro area. |
| Thu 29 Oct | Volkswagen reports nine-month results The Wolfsburg group reports earnings and outlook two days before the no-strike period in the metal industry ends. |
| Fri 30 Oct | Destatis: flash GDP for Q3 and October inflation Together the two figures show how growth and prices in Germany relate after the rise in energy prices. |
| Fri 30 Oct | Federal Employment Agency: labour market in October The figures show whether energy prices and rising interest rates are reaching the labour market. |
| Sat 31 Oct | No-strike period ends in the metal and electrical industry Pay agreements expire and warning strikes are possible from 1 November; IG Metall is demanding 5 per cent more pay and profit-sharing. |
What changes in practice
- Borrowers
- New loans and expiring fixed-rate periods become more expensive if the ECB raises again. Existing fixed rates stay unchanged.
- Savers
- Rates on instant-access and fixed deposits usually follow the ECB's deposit rate of 2.50 per cent with a lag. With inflation at 3.8 per cent, the real return stays negative.
- Companies
- Working-capital and investment loans become dearer with every increase. Monday's ifo business climate index shows how firms see the situation.
- Metal industry
- The no-strike obligation ends on 31 October. Warning strikes are legally possible from 1 November.
What to watch
- ECB deposit rate: does it stay at 2.50 per cent or does the third increase of the year follow
- German inflation in October: is it above September's 3.3 per cent (CPI), with energy most recently at +14.9 per cent
- ifo business climate: does it hold above September's 89.9 points
Sources
- ifo Institut: ifo Geschäftsklima Deutschland, Veröffentlichungstermine
- BASF: Termin Ergebnisse drittes Quartal 2026
- Federal Reserve: Kalender Oktober 2026
- Federal Reserve: FOMC-Erklärung vom 16. September 2026
- Microsoft: Termin der Quartalszahlen (7. Oktober 2026)
- EZB: Sitzungskalender des EZB-Rats
- EZB: Geldpolitische Beschlüsse vom 10. September 2026
- Volkswagen AG: Finanzkalender 2026
- Destatis: Veröffentlichungstermine 26. bis 30. Oktober 2026
- Destatis: Inflationsrate im September 2026 voraussichtlich +3,3 %
- Bundesagentur für Arbeit: Veröffentlichungstermine 2026
- IG Metall: Tarifrunde Metall und Elektro 2026